The risk of diabetes

May 12, 2026 Allulose Store

The risk of type 2 diabetes jumps at the threshold of being overweight

New data shows that the probability of developing type 2 diabetes does not increase uniformly with BMI, but rather in sudden jumps. Compared to a BMI of <22, the relative risk is already 3 times higher even within the "normal" range of 22-25.

Numbers don't lie

The biggest jump occurs between BMI 23.5 and 27.5: the risk increases from 3x to 8x.

This means that there is a drastic difference in metabolism between a BMI of 24.9, which is still considered normal by the WHO, and an overweight BMI of 25.1.

What the line chart illustrates better

Steepness: The curve is flatter between BMI 20-23.5, then steepest between 23.5-27.5.

This "normal → overweight" transition is the most critical phase.

WHO limits: 25 is the threshold for overweight, and 30 for obesity.

It is clear that the risk already starts to increase rapidly before 25.

Curve shape: Not linear, but rather exponential.

After a BMI of 32.5, it accelerates again.

Quick math: Going from a BMI of 20 to 37, the risk became 17x.

This is a 17-unit BMI increase = 16x risk increase.

On average, 1 BMI point ≈ +1x risk, but it is slower at the beginning and faster above 25.

Why does this happen?

Abdominal fat tissue is hormonally active; the more there is, the more inflammatory factors it produces, which worsens insulin sensitivity.

The body finds it increasingly difficult to transport blood sugar into cells, leading to insulin resistance, the precursor to diabetes.

A BMI of 25 is therefore not just a number on the scale

This is the point where the body's metabolism begins to derail.

Above a BMI of 30, the risk is 11 times higher, and above 35, it's 17 times higher compared to those who maintain their BMI below 22.

What can you do?

Know your BMI: weight(kg) / height(m)². Between 22-25, it is already worth paying attention.
Even a 5-10% weight loss matters: Research shows that a weight loss of just 5-7% reduces the risk of diabetes by 58% in overweight individuals.
It's not just about weight loss: Waist circumference, muscle-to-fat ratio, and physical activity are also key. An athletic person with a BMI of 27 can have better metabolism than an inactive person with a BMI of 23.